April 11, 2012 8:18 am
Excluding the U.S., Japan and Australia, most developed countries are expected to experience a mild recession over the next year, with European countries at the highest risk, the report added.
"The U.S. economy is continuing to strengthen and we now put the probability of anemic U.S. growth at less than five percent," explains Lex Huberts, president of Mellon Capital. "This is a significant improvement from September, when the probability was closer to 20 percent that the U.S. economy would grow at less than two percent over the next year.
"Looking at our forward estimates of economic fundamentals, we are cautiously optimistic on stocks given the signs of economic recovery in the U.S., positive steps toward resolving the euro area debt crisis and the general stabilization of earnings forecasts in Europe," adds Huberts. "However, tensions with Iran are a concern."
The report also notes that Mellon Capital is moderately positive on commodities, favors emerging markets equities and favors the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar among developed market currencies at this time.
Source: BNY Mellon
Published with permission from RISMedia.